Don’t underestimate the Republican unity that will happen between now and November. I mean, look at our own issues. We had Obama vs. Clinton in 2008, and we know how that turned out. 4 more years of Bush-style leadership was such a bad thought, that the PUMA’s set aside their animosities. In 2016, the Sanders coalition will come around to support Hillary in the end, because a Republican-controlled Supreme Court is that bad. (Similarly, if Hillary somehow manages to lose, her supporters will absolutely vote Bernie in the Fall, even though her losing what should be an insurmountable lead would be a very bitter pill to swallow.)
I don't know how we can say that our side will unify but somehow their side won't. The #nevertrump crowd is baloney. No different than the Bernie folks who say they can’t vote for Hillary because she’s a corporate shill or the Hillary folks who are pissed off at Bernie supporters for throwing right-wing inspired mud at her to try to drag her down. Think about what would have to happen. The #nevertrump group would need to decide that president Hillary Clinton would be an acceptable outcome. Hillary Clinton - the single-most demonized person by the right wing media for the last 25 years. She got more stuff thrown at her than her husband back in the 1990s, and while POTUS has gotten unprecedented pushback for being an illegitimate president — an “other,” not one of us — Hillary’s been on the receiving end for longer. And Bernie? Bernie polls well in part because the Republicans haven’t attacked him yet. The ads write themselves though. Bernie is a socialist. Socialists and Communists are the same. Do you want someone like Lenin, Marx, Castro, or Chavez running our country? You and I know that the accusations would be bunk, just like the accusations against Hilary would be bunk. But to the target market — the Republican base — those are extremely inflammatory and energizing ads.
I have Republican family members who consider themselves moderate, who claim that they won’t vote for Trump. One even said that they would vote for Hillary if Trump is the nominee. However, those same people were so incensed at Hillary being the nominee in 2008, that they said that they would vote Obama because of Sarah Palin. Whelp, they voted McCain. Seriously, when push comes to shove, they are going to pull the lever for the Republicans.
Mitch McConnell isn’t going to let the Senate candidates run away from the nominee. We saw in 2014 what happens when Democrats run away from the nominee, and history shows that you lose as a Senator if you are running away from the person at the top of the ticket. We may not like him, but he’s not stupid. He’s successfully shut down the Senate and prevented Obama from getting anything done the last several years. Additionally Trump (or Cruz) will moderate stances in the general. While it won’t convince you or me that they are genuine changes, that’s not the point. The entire point is to make the base forget about why Republicans opposed them in the first place.
So regardless of whether it’s Hillary or Bernie at the top of the ticket — this is going to be a super tough election. Diaries (like www.dailykos.com/...) the one on the front page</A> which try to argue that Kasich, Cruz, and Trump ripping up their “pledge” actually means something, are a bit misguided and employing severe wishful thinking. These guys think we are the great Satan. The fractures we see in the Republican party are no different than the ones we have now. Brokered convention makes for a great story, but ultimately the nominee will be someone the majority of the rank & file will support. And may the great Spaghetti monster help us if it’s someone other than Cruz or Trump, because the media will bend over backwards to paint said person as moderate (cough, Kasich, cough) because they are somehow less crazy than the craziest of the crazies.
So yes, the folks that voted for McCain in 2008 are going to vote for the Republican in 2016. I know Obama crushed McCain. The folks that voted Romney in 2012 are going to vote for the Republican in 2016. I know Obama won that one too. But we don’t have Obama any more. We have Hillary Clinton, who can inspire the minorities and women but who carries 20+ years of (mostly unjustified) baggage, and we have Bernie Sanders who is loved by folks under 30, who are about the least reliable general election voting bloc out there, and who is a self-described socialist. We have people who voted Obama who are going to hear over and over again how their lives didn’t improve, who won’t blame the Republicans in the Congress and Senate, and who won't be able to rationally look back at the mess that was 2008 and see how much better things really are, and some of these people are going to say that a businessman isn’t that bad, or Ted Cruz isn’t that bad, or such. It’s hard for a party to win 3 terms in a row. We are going to have a dogfight.